INFLUÊNCIA DO FENÔMENO ENOS SOBRE AS VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS E DÉFICIT HÍDRICO NA CEVADA EM GUARAPUAVA-PR

Abstract

The climate is the factor present in daily life and affects several sectors, especially in agriculture, influencing the development of cultures. In turn, the climate can be affected by phenomena of atmosphere-ocean interaction, such as ENSO (El Niño-South Oscillation) that alters the behavioral patterns of climatic variables. The ENSO phenomenon has two phases, a hot one called El Niño, in which the surface temperature of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is higher than the average, while in La Niña conditions the reduction of the surface temperature of the ocean is observed Peaceful, the absence of these two conditions is called atmospheric neutrality. The municipality of Guarapuava-PR, stands out in the agricultural scenario, occupying the first position in the national ranking in barley production. However, information on the behavior of climatic variables and their influence on barley productivity remains scarce for the region. Thus, the objective of the work was to analyze the behavior of the climatic variables of temperatures (average, minimum and maximum) and precipitation during the phases of ENSO, in addition to assessing the trends in the behavior of temperature (average, minimum and maximum) and precipitation variables, and the risk of water deficit occurring in the soil during the ENSO phases for the cultivation of barley. For that, the historical series referring to the period from 1976 to 2018 of the climatic variables were used, which were submitted to frequency analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), color map (Two-Way Joining) and analysis component principal (ACP). Subsequently, the historical series of temperatures (average, minimum and maximum) and precipitation were time series analysis to assess the trend of the variables and to calculate the depletion layers during the ENOS phases, they were obtained through the precipitation rate and the evapotranspiration during the decade, during the barley cycle. The results showed that in the analyzed period the highest rainfall averages in El Niño are found from May to July and from October to December, while the lowest average, for this phase, occurs in the month of August. The phenomena of La Niña and neutrality have the same period of highest and lowest rainfall, being respectively from September to April and from May to August, while the temperature variables (average, minimum and maximum) for all phases of ENSO present the highest values from September to March and the lowest values occur from May to July for the opposite phases and from June to July for neutrality. The time series analysis showed tends to increase for temperatures (average, minimum and maximum), while for precipitation the trend is stationary. The results of the water deficit risk analysis showed that the phenomena of La Niña and El Niño have the greatest probabilities of water deficit in the soil during the months of August and September, and in neutrality this period occurs from July to August, La Niña phenomena that present a higher risk of higher levels of water deficit depletion in the barley cycle.