ESTIMATIVA DE APTIDÃO AGRÍCOLA PARA MILHO E TRIGO EM DIFERENTES CENÁRIOS CLIMÁTICOS FUTUROS NA MICRORREGIÃO DE GUARAPUAVA-PR

Abstract

Evidence that global climate change has occurred due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases has been increasingly consistent and accepted by the international scientific community. Weather conditions drastically affect the productivity and economic viability of agriculture that is challenged by constant temperature and precipitation variations. In order to assess the impacts of climate change, climate scenario models provide relevant information optimizing the chances of finding solutions to environmental issues in regional and rural planning. This work aimed to evaluate the climatic changes in the Guarapuava microregion in the state of Paraná, analyzing its impacts on wheat and maize crop productivity, using climate modeling and local production database. The spatial time variability of mean air temperature and mean rainfall for the Guarapuava Microregion was discussed. Mathematical adequacy models were adjusted using Multiple Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The possible impacts of climate change on wheat and maize crops were evaluated using the climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC) to calculate the agricultural aptitude index of the crops considering the following variables: Soil, Landscape and Climate. The results obtained in the climatic analysis for the agricultural Land suitability potential were compared with the production indexes obtained in the field in the 2000, 2005 and 2010 harvests, generating information that allows the discussion of climate impacts on crop productivity in the study region. The results showed that the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate a projection of average increase of approximately 2 ° C in the average monthly temperature of the study area, the projection of elevation of the average temperature influences moderately for the increase of areas with higher index of cumulative monthly rainfall. In the estimation process with the MCA model, agricultural suitability indexes of approximately 80% or higher and 60% or lower were shown to be good indicators for a more probable expression of higher or lower productivity indexes, respectively, of the crops corn and wheat in the Guarapuava microregion.